Homs could become Syria’s ‘Stalingrad’

Why the battle for Homs could be ‘make or break’ for the Free Syrian Army

by Anthony Tucker-Jones (08 February 2012)

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s talks in Damascus are ultimately a pointless and futile gesture. All they do is serve to hide the fact that Moscow is morally bankrupt over its support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. It is notable that Lavrov was accompanied by Russia’s foreign intelligence chief Mikhail Fradkov, who was no doubt intent on maintaining Russian military access to the Syrian port of Tartus. Russia and China’s veto of a United Nations resolution leaves Assad a free hand to crush the Free Syrian Army – or FSA. Moscow claims it wants the UN to avoid taking sides and to stabilise the situation in Syria. This, though inevitable, plays into the hands of President Assad’s regime. United States Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has branded Moscow’s stance a “travesty”.

Indeed, Homs was being shelled even before Russia exercised its veto. While comparisons between Homs and Stalingrad may be premature and spurious, the city has endured a week of unrelenting shelling with 12 districts under attack. In particular the rebellious south-western Baba Amr district has been singled out for special treatment. Its power and communications have been severed and it has been taking a pounding from helicopter gunships.

The Syrian army has also been deploying artillery, mortars and rocket launchers in order to cow Homs’ rebels. These are backed by armoured vehicles and attack helicopters. It is unclear if the Syrian air force is involved. The FSA understandably fear the military are preparing to storm the rebel-held areas in the city. Witnesses have reported 78 tanks, 150 armoured vehicles and 40 buses carrying militia massing outside Baba Amr. The signs are not good.

And FSA troops are only equipped with light weapons. They have little that can respond to the shelling and mortaring they have been enduring. Nonetheless, the outgunned rebels have managed to destroy police armoured cars and military armoured personnel carriers on the streets of Homs. The opposition’s Syrian National Council now holds Russia and China accountable for this renewed killing. The Syrian Muslim Brotherhood also holds Russia, China and Iran responsible for the escalating situation, and it has accused all three of supplying weapons to Assad’s embattled regime. 
There are also fears that the Iranian military may be helping with the assault on Homs.

Nationally, the death toll is rapidly approaching 10,000 – more than 7,000 civilians and 2,000 members of the security forces - since last March and the FSA know that without outside help it is doomed. A defecting Syrian general has estimated that the Syrian Army will collapse within a month, the question is whether the FSA can last that long. All eyes are now on the Arab League meeting in Cairo this weekend. It continues to call for Assad to hand power to a deputy, form a unitary government and hold elections within six months. How it intends to achieve this after the failure of the UN remains to be seen.